Primary Hazard Profile
10 hazards documented · 0 citywide exposure · 0 worsening with climate change
| Hazard | Exposure | Severity | Probability | Climate trend | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cold weather days4.3Location[{"name": "seniors", "noted_for": "directly impacted by cold weather conditions on their health", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "Cold weather conditions can directly impact people's health, especially seniors, young children, people with pre-existing conditions, people who must spend long hours outdoors, and people with limited access to electricity or heat", "page": 29, "verbatim_match": true}]}, {"name": "young children", "noted_for": "directly impacted by cold weather conditions on their health", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "Cold weather conditions can directly impact people's health, especially seniors, young children, people with pre-existing conditions, people who must spend long hours outdoors, and people with limited access to electricity or heat", "page": 29, "verbatim_match": true}]}, {"name": "people with pre-existing conditions", "noted_for": "directly impacted by cold weather conditions on their health", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "Cold weather conditions can directly impact people's health, especially seniors, young children, people with pre-existing conditions, people who must spend long hours outdoors, and people with limited access to electricity or heat", "page": 29, "verbatim_match": true}]}, {"name": "people who must spend long hours outdoors", "noted_for": "directly impacted by cold weather conditions on their health", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "Cold weather conditions can directly impact people's health, especially seniors, young children, people with pre-existing conditions, people who must spend long hours outdoors, and people with limited access to electricity or heat", "page": 29, "verbatim_match": true}]}, {"name": "people with limited access to electricity or heat", "noted_for": "directly impacted by cold weather conditions on their health", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "Cold weather conditions can directly impact people's health, especially seniors, young children, people with pre-existing conditions, people who must spend long hours outdoors, and people with limited access to electricity or heat", "page": 29, "verbatim_match": true}]}, {"name": "built infrastructure", "noted_for": "at risk from extreme low temperatures and freeze-thaw fluctuations depending on design parameters", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "Extreme low temperatures and temperature fluctuations between freezing and non-freezing temperatures can pose a risk to our built infrastructure, depending on their design parameters", "page": 29, "verbatim_match": true}]}, {"name": "plants and animals not adapted to cold or requiring stable temperature conditions", "noted_for": "threatened by extreme cold weather conditions", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "Extreme cold also poses a threat to plants and animals that are not adapted to the cold or require stable temperature conditions.", "page": 29, "verbatim_match": true}]}] source source | Name: seniors; Noted For: directly impacted by cold weather conditions on their health; Supporting Quotes: [object Object] Name: young children; Noted For: directly impac... | number of frost days/yr (daily min <0°C), cold days/yr (daily min <-10°C), and very cold days/yr (daily min <-20°C) | 1971-2000 modelled historical ('the 1980s'): approximately 3 very cold days (below -20°C) per year; frost days and cold days baselines implied by the projected decreases... | decrease | source |
Extreme heat4.2Location[{"name": "Seniors", "noted_for": "Explicitly identified as a population at heightened health risk from extreme heat", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "Extreme heat puts everyone's health at risk, especially seniors, young children, people with pre-existing conditions, people with limited access to cooling, and people who must spend long hours outdoors", "page": 28}]}, {"name": "Young children", "noted_for": "Explicitly identified as a population at heightened health risk from extreme heat", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "Extreme heat puts everyone's health at risk, especially seniors, young children, people with pre-existing conditions, people with limited access to cooling, and people who must spend long hours outdoors", "page": 28}]}, {"name": "People with pre-existing conditions", "noted_for": "Explicitly identified as a population at heightened health risk from extreme heat", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "Extreme heat puts everyone's health at risk, especially seniors, young children, people with pre-existing conditions, people with limited access to cooling, and people who must spend long hours outdoors", "page": 28}]}, {"name": "People with limited access to cooling", "noted_for": "Explicitly identified as a population at heightened health risk from extreme heat", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "Extreme heat puts everyone's health at risk, especially seniors, young children, people with pre-existing conditions, people with limited access to cooling, and people who must spend long hours outdoors", "page": 28}]}, {"name": "People who must spend long hours outdoors", "noted_for": "Explicitly identified as a population at heightened health risk from extreme heat", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "Extreme heat puts everyone's health at risk, especially seniors, young children, people with pre-existing conditions, people with limited access to cooling, and people who must spend long hours outdoors", "page": 28}]}, {"name": "Built infrastructure (buildings, transportation systems, energy systems)", "noted_for": "Identified as at risk from extreme heat depending on design parameters", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "It can pose a risk to our built infrastructure such as buildings, transportation systems, and energy systems, depending on their design parameters", "page": 28}]}, {"name": "Plants and animals", "noted_for": "Identified as threatened by extreme heat, particularly those not adapted to heat or requiring stable temperature conditions", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "Extreme heat also poses a threat to plants and animals that are not adapted to the heat or require stable temperature conditions.", "page": 28}]}] source source | Name: Seniors; Noted For: Explicitly identified as a population at heightened health risk from extreme heat; Supporting Quotes: [object Object] Name: Young children; Note... | days/yr with daily max >30°C; days/yr with daily max >35°C; hottest day temperature (°C); number of temperature-based heat warnings per year; maximum consecutive temperat... | 1971-2000 (modelled historical, referred to as 'the 1980s'): hottest day of the year averaged approximately 33°C | increase | source |
Freeze-thaw cycles4.6Location[{"name": "roadways and sidewalks", "noted_for": "subject to significant damage from the freezing, melting, and re-freezing of water over time", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "Water expands when it freezes, so the freezing, melting and re-freezing of water can cause significant damage to roadways, sidewalks, and other outdoor structures over time.", "page": 34, "verbatim_match": true}]}, {"name": "other outdoor structures", "noted_for": "subject to significant damage from freeze-thaw cycles over time", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "Water expands when it freezes, so the freezing, melting and re-freezing of water can cause significant damage to roadways, sidewalks, and other outdoor structures over time.", "page": 34, "verbatim_match": true}]}, {"name": "people's health and safety", "noted_for": "endangered by slippery road conditions created by freezing rain", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "Freezing rain can create slippery road conditions that endanger people's health and safety (Ouranos, 2024; Public Safety Canada, 2011).", "page": 34, "verbatim_match": true}]}, {"name": "infrastructure, recreation, and ecosystem health", "noted_for": "affected by freezing rain associated with freeze-thaw conditions", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "It can also affect infrastructure, recreation, and ecosystem health.", "page": 34, "verbatim_match": true}]}] source source | Name: roadways and sidewalks; Noted For: subject to significant damage from the freezing, melting, and re-freezing of water over time; Supporting Quotes: [object Object]... | number of freeze-thaw cycles per year | — | decrease | source |
Frost-free season4.7Location[{"name": "agriculture and agricultural production", "noted_for": "extended frost-free season creates both benefits for agricultural production and more favourable conditions for insects and pests that can harm agriculture", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "While an extended warm-weather period is expected to benefit agricultural production, it also creates conditions that are more favourable for the growth and spread of insects and pests, which can harm agriculture and natural ecosystems.", "page": 34, "verbatim_match": true}]}, {"name": "natural ecosystems", "noted_for": "longer frost-free season creates more favourable conditions for insects and pests that can harm natural ecosystems", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "it also creates conditions that are more favourable for the growth and spread of insects and pests, which can harm agriculture and natural ecosystems.", "page": 34, "verbatim_match": true}]}] source source | Name: agriculture and agricultural production; Noted For: extended frost-free season creates both benefits for agricultural production and more favourable conditions for... | frost-free season length (days) | — | increase | source |
Heating and cooling demand4.4Location[] source source | heating and cooling degree days (°C-days/yr, base 18°C) | — | mixed | source | |
Infrastructure design values4.9Location[{"name": "existing and new infrastructure", "noted_for": "climate-adjusted design values indicate increasing pressures on both existing and new infrastructure as global warming continues", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "Climate-adjusted infrastructure design values indicate increasing pressures on existing and new infrastructure", "page": 35, "verbatim_match": true}]}, {"name": "stormwater management infrastructure", "noted_for": "increased precipitation intensity across all short-duration rainfall amplifies the risk of flooding and erosion, directly affecting stormwater management planning and design", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "Precipitation intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves also provide important information for the planning and design of infrastructure and stormwater management.", "page": 35, "verbatim_match": true}, {"text": "With more rain anticipated to fall over a short period, total precipitation (or rainfall depth) is also anticipated to increase, amplifying the risk of flooding and erosion.", "page": 35, "verbatim_match": true}]}] source source | Name: existing and new infrastructure; Noted For: climate-adjusted design values indicate increasing pressures on both existing and new infrastructure as global warming c... | multiple metrics: July (hot weather) design temperatures, January (cold weather) design temperatures, rainfall loads, snow loads, humidity, wind loads, driving rain wind... | — | mixed | source |
Lake Ontario changes4.8Location[] source source | — | — | mixed | source | |
Precipitation4.5Location[{"name": "Areas subject to flooding and ice jams", "noted_for": "More rain falling on frozen ground during winter and spring may lead to increased flooding and ice jams", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "As more precipitation is expected to fall as rain instead of snow, more rain may fall on frozen ground during winter and spring, which may in turn lead to increased flooding and ice jams (TRCA Flood Risk Management, 2024).", "page": 32, "verbatim_match": true}]}, {"name": "Areas exposed to extreme precipitation events (100-year storm zones)", "noted_for": "What used to be a 1-in-100 year storm is expected to occur more frequently as precipitation increases", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "With increasing precipitation, what used to be a 1-in-100 year storm can be expected to occur more frequently as suggested by climate-adjusted intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves (section 4.9).", "page": 33, "verbatim_match": true}]}] source source | Name: Areas subject to flooding and ice jams; Noted For: More rain falling on frozen ground during winter and spring may lead to increased flooding and ice jams; Supporti... | annual total precipitation (% change from 1971–2000 modelled historical baseline); also maximum 1-day precipitation (% change) | Annual total precipitation has generally increased in Toronto (1849–2023 measured record), with some years seeing drier-than-average conditions; the baseline comparison p... | increase | source |
Rising temperatures4.1Location[{"name": "agriculture and food systems", "noted_for": "temperature changes affect agriculture and the amount of heat available to support crop growth, with increased risk of pests", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "Changes in temperature affect agriculture, infrastructure, people's health, water availability, energy use, recreation, and ecosystem health.", "page": 26, "verbatim_match": false}, {"text": "Winter temperatures are expected to increase the most compared to the 1980s, with greater increases in winter mean and minimum temperatures. This may in turn influence energy management, recreation, agriculture, infrastructure, the spread of pests and diseases, water availability, and ecosystem health.", "page": 27, "verbatim_match": false}]}, {"name": "infrastructure", "noted_for": "temperature changes affect infrastructure, with winter temperature increases specifically influencing energy management and infrastructure performance", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "Changes in temperature affect agriculture, infrastructure, people's health, water availability, energy use, recreation, and ecosystem health.", "page": 26, "verbatim_match": false}, {"text": "This may in turn influence energy management, recreation, agriculture, infrastructure, the spread of pests and diseases, water availability, and ecosystem health.", "page": 27, "verbatim_match": false}]}, {"name": "people's health", "noted_for": "temperature changes directly affect people's health", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "Changes in temperature affect agriculture, infrastructure, people's health, water availability, energy use, recreation, and ecosystem health.", "page": 26, "verbatim_match": false}]}, {"name": "ecosystems", "noted_for": "temperature increases influence ecosystem health and the spread of pests and diseases", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "This may in turn influence energy management, recreation, agriculture, infrastructure, the spread of pests and diseases, water availability, and ecosystem health.", "page": 27, "verbatim_match": false}]}] source source | Name: agriculture and food systems; Noted For: temperature changes affect agriculture and the amount of heat available to support crop growth, with increased risk of pest... | annual average temperature change (°C) compared to 1971-2000 modelled historical | Since 1980, each decade has been warmer than the last, with an increase in the number of warmer-than-average years in recent decades; the 1971-2000 modelled historical pe... | increase | source |
Thunderstorms and other extremes4.10Location[{"name": "People's health and safety (general population)", "noted_for": "At increased risk from coinciding precipitation and temperature extremes during summer, which may result in flooding during extreme heat days, amplifying health and safety risks.", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "This may result in an increased risk of flooding during extreme heat days, amplifying the risk to people's health and safety, especially as past storm events have also led to extensive power outages across the city", "page": 36, "verbatim_match": true}]}, {"name": "High-rise buildings in Toronto", "noted_for": "Subject to potential increased wind loads, though no substantial changes in mean design wind speed were found under either scenario.", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "One study that simulated wind loads on high-rise buildings in Toronto did not find substantial changes in mean design wind speed with a 50-year return period under the medium (RCP4.5) and high emissions scenarios (RCP8.5) but noted that the risk of increased wind loads should not be ruled out", "page": 36, "verbatim_match": true}]}, {"name": "Toronto City Hall location", "noted_for": "Anticipated changes in driving rain wind pressure (DRWP) with a 5-year return period are expected to vary specifically for this location.", "supporting_quotes": [{"text": "Future driving rain wind pressure (DRWP) with a 5-year return period are projected to increase over western, eastern, and northern Canada under the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5; Jeong et al., 2020), though this is anticipated to vary for the Toronto City Hall location based on PCIC's Design Value Explorer tool", "page": 36, "verbatim_match": true}]}] source source | Name: People's health and safety (general population); Noted For: At increased risk from coinciding precipitation and temperature extremes during summer, which may result... | — | — | mixed | source |